Business cycle dating committee wiki
See Methodology Does CEPR use a different approach to NBER?See The CEPR and NBER Approaches What data does the Committee use?The Committee wants to make sure that its characterization of Euro-area economic activity (which is its sole objective) is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the Euro-area.Adopting a dating criterion that refers solely to aggregate Euro-area economic activity achieves this objective most transparently.(2) The continued strength of employment and the decline in the unemployment rate.(3) The erratic behavior of automobile and truck production brought about by the shortage of gasoline and increases in its price and by the work stoppage in the trucking industry.Does the Committee date recessions for individual countries in the euro area?No, the sole objective of the Committee is to date recessions for the euro area as a whole.
The Committee has scheduled another meeting for late October.
It is thus possible that the EU-area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not, and that the business cycle dates differ for the Euro-area and for individual countries.
For instance, 2011Q3 is a peak in the Euro-area as a whole, but not for Germany.
Recall that our definition includes the phrase, “a significant decline in activity.” Isn’t a recession a period of diminished economic activity?
It’s more accurate to say that a recession — in the way we use the word — is a period of diminishing activity rather than diminished activity.Most of the recessions identified by the Committee’s procedures consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but declining real GDP is not the only indicator used.